This was the landscape of the Great Stagnation. For years, the mortgage market had been a predictable beast—a cycle of ebbs and flows tied to the Fed’s drumbeat. But now, the drumbeat had turned into a frantic staccato.
Sarah, a sharp thirty-something who had climbed the ranks by predicting the 2022 pivot, leaned against the mahogany table. "It’s the 'Golden Handcuffs' effect, Elias. No one with a 3% rate is moving unless they’re dying, divorcing, or being deported. They’re staying put, and the buyers are fighting over the scraps of new builds." mortgage market
Back at Sterling & Finch, the tension snapped. A notification chimed—the latest CPI data was out. It was hotter than expected. Elias watched in real-time as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked. Within seconds, the mortgage software updated: the national average had just ticked up another fifteen basis points. "There goes the spring buying season," Sarah sighed. This was the landscape of the Great Stagnation