Elias spends weeks at his computer, watching simulations run. He watches the "caterpillar plots" wiggle across his screen—a visual representation of his model exploring the vast landscape of probability.
Among them is Elias, a PhD candidate studying bird migration. He has a problem: his data is messy, his sample size is small, and the standard tests keep telling him nothing is happening. He feels like he’s trying to map a forest by looking through a straw. Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with ...
He closes the book, now dog-eared and stained with coffee, and looks at his data. The forest is no longer seen through a straw; the owl is finally drawn. Elias spends weeks at his computer, watching simulations run